Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
